commitment-package-framework

The chapter addresses managing uncertainty in strategic decision-making by prioritizing uncertainty areas based on their salience and balancing the costs and benefits of exploratory actions. It introduces the commitment package framework to integrate immediate decisions with deferred choices supported by explorations and contingency planning. Emphasizing interactive group work and process management, the chapter highlights the dynamic interplay of strategic choice modes and the importance of making both visible and invisible products of the decision process accessible for shared learning and improved communication.

The chapter presents the strategic choice approach to managing uncertainty in complex policy decisions, exemplified by the development of LPG policy in the Netherlands. It details how uncertainties were systematically mapped by type, salience, and reducibility, and how a commitment package framework organized policy options and responsibilities. The approach emphasized understanding over definitive conclusions, accommodated multiple government perspectives, and fostered consensus and adaptive management, which proved resilient even after a major LPG disaster.