uncertainty-management

The chapter presents the strategic choice approach as a participative and adaptive method for managing complex, interconnected decision problems by explicitly addressing three types of uncertainty: environmental, values-based, and related decision fields. It introduces the dynamics of decision-making through four complementary modes—shaping, designing, comparing, and choosing—and emphasizes the use of decision areas and decision graphs as collaborative tools to map and negotiate the interrelationships among key decisions. The approach critiques conventional management science techniques for their limitations in handling complexity and highlights the importance of incremental progress and collaborative processes in real-world decision environments.

The chapter presents an iterative and collaborative approach to structuring complex transportation policy decisions, focusing on water transport and modal split options. It details the use of qualitative evaluation methods, such as option graphs and dominance analysis, to compare decision schemes against multiple criteria including risk, cost, and feasibility. The management of uncertainty is emphasized through the identification, categorization, and selective analysis of key uncertainties, culminating in the use of an uncertainty graph to prioritize and address factors impacting decision confidence and validity.

The chapter presents the strategic choice approach to managing uncertainty in complex policy decisions, exemplified by the development of LPG policy in the Netherlands. It details how uncertainties were systematically mapped by type, salience, and reducibility, and how a commitment package framework organized policy options and responsibilities. The approach emphasized understanding over definitive conclusions, accommodated multiple government perspectives, and fostered consensus and adaptive management, which proved resilient even after a major LPG disaster.