crisis-instability
The increased risk of conflict escalation caused by vulnerabilities that tempt adversaries to launch cyber attacks during periods of tension.
2 chapters across 1 book
Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do About It (2012)Richard A. Clarke and Robert K. Knake
This chapter highlights the absence of a coherent U.S. cyber war strategy, emphasizing the complexity and critical importance of defining goals, means, and limits in cyber conflict. It draws parallels with the historical development of nuclear strategy to suggest that a comprehensive cyber war strategy must balance offensive capabilities with robust defenses to reduce vulnerabilities and crisis instability. The authors argue that the current strategic imbalance leaves the U.S. at a disadvantage, making defensive measures essential to deter adversaries and prevent escalation.
The chapter discusses the concept of crisis instability in the context of nuclear and cyber warfare, focusing on the risks of rapid decision-making under threat. It compares Cold War nuclear strategies like 'launch on warning' and 'launch under attack' with modern cyber war challenges, emphasizing the dangers of acting too quickly without full information due to first-mover advantages and ambiguous intent. The authors highlight how the potential for rapid cyber attacks and countermeasures can create a hair-trigger environment that pressures decision-makers to respond hastily.